Dividend Aristocrats Viewpoint 10

arrows-leftarrows-right

What Dividend Investors Should Know About Technology Stocks

The first quarter’s uptick in interest rates has raised concerns with investors about the potential for headwinds in the stock market if rates continue to increase. As opposed to bonds—and perhaps to the surprise of some—stocks often rise in value when interest rates rise. Dividend growth strategies focused on companies with the longest track records of consistent dividend growth tend to be all-weather strategies that have performed well during a variety of interest rate environments. They may contribute positively to performance through both price appreciation and growing income streams, even when interest rates are rising.

First Quater 2021 Dividend Scorecard

Investors may not immediately associate dividends with technology stocks. As recently as 10 years ago, relatively few technology companies even paid dividends, much less grew them. In fact, only one in four tech stocks paid a dividend in 2011.

The times have changed. According to S&P Dow Jones sector data, by 2020, approximately one-half of all technology stocks now pay a dividend and almost one-third are growing those dividends. The trend toward paying and growing dividends is also meaningful when compared with one of the sector’s consistent storylines—share buybacks. Paying and increasing dividends often indicate management’s confidence in the future trajectory of the business, while share buybacks may be driven by more transitory factors. If tech’s trend toward dividends is any indication, it seems likely that more technology companies will continue to initiate dividends over the coming years. Dividend investors who are not paying attention to the technology landscape may be missing a potential opportunity.

Interest Rates Are Rising and Stocks Are Performing Well

Interest rates have been increasing since the summer of 2020, but the stock market has continued to rise. Some investors have seen this as gravity-defying and perhaps a sign of growing risk. After all, rising interest rates increase the discount rate on future cash flows of a stock, which in turn lowers the present value. Stocks are not bonds, though. A bond paying fixed coupons is defenseless in the face of rising rates—when rates rise, bond prices typically fall. Stocks, however, are different. Earnings grow. So too can dividends. It is the battle between growth and higher discount rates that can muddle the relationship between stocks and rising interest rates.

The history of stock market performance in various interest rate environments is mixed. Standard & Poor’s has found that, prior to 1998 and including the period when interest rates peaked in the early 1980s, stocks performed best when rates fell the most. Over the past two decades, however, rising rates have not necessarily caused the same results. Stocks have performed strongly during several sustained periods when rates increased.

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur.
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Euismod tristique egestas vitae cras aliquet lacus fermentum amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Euismod tristique egestas vitae cras aliquet lacus fermentum.
There’s a Massive Global Need for Increased Infrastructure Spending

January–March 2020

Return

Volatility

  

S&P 500

-19.60%

56.95%

S&P 500 with 10% Hedge in SH (-1x ETF)

-16.17%

44.86%

S&P 500 with 20% Hedge in SH (-1x ETF)

-13.30%

35.49%

In the United States, infrastructure is aging and under strain—which is why an infrastructure bill is in play. The need is significant. Just this year, the American Society of Civil Engineers graded a range of infrastructure categories and determined many were approaching failure, requiring nearly $6 trillion to maintain a good state of repair. Traditional funding sources like municipalities are unable to meet future requirements given their fiscal challenges, so not only federal, but also private investment may be required.

The same holds true globally. In its 2019 Global Risks Report, the World Economic Forum noted that to keep pace with global population and economic growth, and to meet the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals of clean water and electricity, $97 trillion needed to be invested into global infrastructure. Based on current spending trends, there is a $18 trillion spending shortfall—a shortfall that may attract capital long after a stimulus bill and economic reopening.

Infrastructure Has Offered Compelling Yields Backed by Stable Cash Flows
CompanyContactCountry
Alfreds FutterkisteMaria AndersGermany
Centro comercial MoctezumaFrancisco ChangMexico
Ernst HandelRoland MendelAustria
Island TradingHelen BennettUK
Laughing Bacchus WinecellarsYoshi TannamuriCanada
Magazzini Alimentari RiunitiGiovanni RovelliItaly

Not all infrastructure companies are the same. As a group, companies that build or develop infrastructure—construction companies, raw material producers, airline manufacturers and the like—tend to be more volatile and prone to boom and bust cycles. When times are good, their revenues and earnings may increase, only to falter when the economic cycle cools.

However, pure-play infrastructure—companies that own and operate infrastructure assets, such as airports, cell towers and the like—are different. These assets are essential, large-scale, often with limited competition, and, despite the aberrant events of the pandemic, consumer demand for their services tends to be inelastic, making their business models less cyclical in nature.

These critical differences have resulted in contrasting risk and return profiles over time. While pure-play infrastructure, as represented by the DJ Brookfield Global Infrastructure Composite Index, has delivered slightly higher risk-adjusted returns over cyclical infrastructure, as represented by the Indxx U.S. Development Infrastructure index, the “ride” experienced by investors has been very different. This could prove beneficial following the strong market rally of 2020 and the uncertainty ahead.

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur.
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Euismod tristique egestas vitae cras aliquet lacus fermentum amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Euismod tristique egestas vitae cras aliquet lacus fermentum.

Two successive U.S. administrations, one from each party, have now stressed the importance of an infrastructure bill. With a unified government, the prospects for federal infrastructure investment are rising. President Biden has laid out a $2 trillion plan to rebuild America’s infrastructure that includes fixing 20,000 miles of roads and over 10,000 bridges, and Speaker Pelosi has committed to moving swiftly on legislation. These latest efforts may not be the only catalyst for infrastructure companies to potentially benefit from increased attention and spending. As the economy reopens post-pandemic, it is reasonable to expect more road and air travel as people attempt to shake off quarantine cobwebs. Also, the promise of enhanced wireless communication and 5G are transforming the world’s communication capabilities.

Pure-play infrastructure—the companies that own and operate infrastructure assets such as airports and toll roads—have attractive characteristics for many investors and, as we consider the backdrop of government stimulus and economic reopening, may be a compelling way to access the infrastructure opportunity. While construction companies may be the primary beneficiaries of a building boom, the companies that own, maintain and collect fees from the ongoing use of infrastructure are positioned to benefit over the long haul.

There’s a Massive Global Need for Increased Infrastructure Spending

January–March 2020

Return

Volatility

  

S&P 500

-19.60%

56.95%

S&P 500 with 10% Hedge in SH (-1x ETF)

-16.17%

44.86%

S&P 500 with 20% Hedge in SH (-1x ETF)

-13.30%

35.49%

In the United States, infrastructure is aging and under strain—which is why an infrastructure bill is in play. The need is significant. Just this year, the American Society of Civil Engineers graded a range of infrastructure categories and determined many were approaching failure, requiring nearly $6 trillion to maintain a good state of repair. Traditional funding sources like municipalities are unable to meet future requirements given their fiscal challenges, so not only federal, but also private investment may be required.

The same holds true globally. In its 2019 Global Risks Report, the World Economic Forum noted that to keep pace with global population and economic growth, and to meet the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals of clean water and electricity, $97 trillion needed to be invested into global infrastructure. Based on current spending trends, there is a $18 trillion spending shortfall—a shortfall that may attract capital long after a stimulus bill and economic reopening.

Infrastructure Has Offered Compelling Yields Backed by Stable Cash Flows
CompanyContactCountry
Alfreds FutterkisteMaria AndersGermany
Centro comercial MoctezumaFrancisco ChangMexico
Ernst HandelRoland MendelAustria
Island TradingHelen BennettUK
Laughing Bacchus WinecellarsYoshi TannamuriCanada
Magazzini Alimentari RiunitiGiovanni RovelliItaly

Not all infrastructure companies are the same. As a group, companies that build or develop infrastructure—construction companies, raw material producers, airline manufacturers and the like—tend to be more volatile and prone to boom and bust cycles. When times are good, their revenues and earnings may increase, only to falter when the economic cycle cools.

However, pure-play infrastructure—companies that own and operate infrastructure assets, such as airports, cell towers and the like—are different. These assets are essential, large-scale, often with limited competition, and, despite the aberrant events of the pandemic, consumer demand for their services tends to be inelastic, making their business models less cyclical in nature.

These critical differences have resulted in contrasting risk and return profiles over time. While pure-play infrastructure, as represented by the DJ Brookfield Global Infrastructure Composite Index, has delivered slightly higher risk-adjusted returns over cyclical infrastructure, as represented by the Indxx U.S. Development Infrastructure index, the “ride” experienced by investors has been very different. This could prove beneficial following the strong market rally of 2020 and the uncertainty ahead.

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur.
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Euismod tristique egestas vitae cras aliquet lacus fermentum amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Euismod tristique egestas vitae cras aliquet lacus fermentum.

Two successive U.S. administrations, one from each party, have now stressed the importance of an infrastructure bill. With a unified government, the prospects for federal infrastructure investment are rising. President Biden has laid out a $2 trillion plan to rebuild America’s infrastructure that includes fixing 20,000 miles of roads and over 10,000 bridges, and Speaker Pelosi has committed to moving swiftly on legislation. These latest efforts may not be the only catalyst for infrastructure companies to potentially benefit from increased attention and spending. As the economy reopens post-pandemic, it is reasonable to expect more road and air travel as people attempt to shake off quarantine cobwebs. Also, the promise of enhanced wireless communication and 5G are transforming the world’s communication capabilities.

Pure-play infrastructure—the companies that own and operate infrastructure assets such as airports and toll roads—have attractive characteristics for many investors and, as we consider the backdrop of government stimulus and economic reopening, may be a compelling way to access the infrastructure opportunity. While construction companies may be the primary beneficiaries of a building boom, the companies that own, maintain and collect fees from the ongoing use of infrastructure are positioned to benefit over the long haul.

There’s a Massive Global Need for Increased Infrastructure Spending

January–March 2020

Return

Volatility

  

S&P 500

-19.60%

56.95%

S&P 500 with 10% Hedge in SH (-1x ETF)

-16.17%

44.86%

S&P 500 with 20% Hedge in SH (-1x ETF)

-13.30%

35.49%

In the United States, infrastructure is aging and under strain—which is why an infrastructure bill is in play. The need is significant. Just this year, the American Society of Civil Engineers graded a range of infrastructure categories and determined many were approaching failure, requiring nearly $6 trillion to maintain a good state of repair. Traditional funding sources like municipalities are unable to meet future requirements given their fiscal challenges, so not only federal, but also private investment may be required.

The same holds true globally. In its 2019 Global Risks Report, the World Economic Forum noted that to keep pace with global population and economic growth, and to meet the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals of clean water and electricity, $97 trillion needed to be invested into global infrastructure. Based on current spending trends, there is a $18 trillion spending shortfall—a shortfall that may attract capital long after a stimulus bill and economic reopening.

Infrastructure Has Offered Compelling Yields Backed by Stable Cash Flows
CompanyContactCountry
Alfreds FutterkisteMaria AndersGermany
Centro comercial MoctezumaFrancisco ChangMexico
Ernst HandelRoland MendelAustria
Island TradingHelen BennettUK
Laughing Bacchus WinecellarsYoshi TannamuriCanada
Magazzini Alimentari RiunitiGiovanni RovelliItaly

Not all infrastructure companies are the same. As a group, companies that build or develop infrastructure—construction companies, raw material producers, airline manufacturers and the like—tend to be more volatile and prone to boom and bust cycles. When times are good, their revenues and earnings may increase, only to falter when the economic cycle cools.

However, pure-play infrastructure—companies that own and operate infrastructure assets, such as airports, cell towers and the like—are different. These assets are essential, large-scale, often with limited competition, and, despite the aberrant events of the pandemic, consumer demand for their services tends to be inelastic, making their business models less cyclical in nature.

These critical differences have resulted in contrasting risk and return profiles over time. While pure-play infrastructure, as represented by the DJ Brookfield Global Infrastructure Composite Index, has delivered slightly higher risk-adjusted returns over cyclical infrastructure, as represented by the Indxx U.S. Development Infrastructure index, the “ride” experienced by investors has been very different. This could prove beneficial following the strong market rally of 2020 and the uncertainty ahead.

Learn More

Dividend Growers

A family of domestic and international ETFs that are the best dividend growers in their respective categories.

geared-icon
Get the latest dividend growers research and updates.